Commentary by Carl Hintz
There are 12,512 nuclear warheads in the world today, most of them in the arsenals of Russia and the United States. China, Pakistan, India, France, the United Kingdom, Israel, and North Korea are also nuclear-armed states. These weapons do not bring us peace or security. Rather, they threaten the survival of humanity.
One nuclear weapon detonated in a major city would kill more than half a million people. Even a regional nuclear war would cause nuclear winter and famine at a global scale. But a limited nuclear exchange is unlikely to remain local, as the major powers are set for massive counterattacks to a single strike.
Some people believe a nuclear war is so terrible that it could never happen, but the logic of deterrence requires that the threat to launch nuclear weapons is credible. The United States is the only country that has used nuclear weapons in war, and as we don’t have a “No First Use” policy like China or India, our President could legally initiate a nuclear attack.
In the heat of conflict, it is easy to imagine a nuclear war that starts by accident. Another plausible and terrifying scenario is a conventional war that escalates into a nuclear war. Likewise, a head of state or high-up military official might have little concern for human life, or be willing to take great risks in order to appear strong, or, afflicted by madness, become completely divorced from reality.
In 2024, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved their symbolic “Doomsday Clock” to 90 seconds to midnight, citing the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine and in Gaza. They also point to increased nuclear weapons spending in the United States, China, and Russia as well as nuclear weapons expansion in India and Pakistan. Additionally, important nuclear arms treaties have experienced major setbacks, including the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, and the Iran Nuclear Deal, due to withdrawal by the United States or Russia.
However, there is a ray of hope—the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which entered into force on January 22nd, 2021 and has been ratified by seventy countries. A nuclear-armed country can join the treaty if it agrees to destroy its nuclear weapons within a legally binding time-bound plan.
All countries that ratify the treaty agree to neither “develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices” nor “use or threaten to use nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.”
In U.S. law, a treaty is ratified when it is first signed by the President and then passes a two-thirds vote in the Senate. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, for example, was signed by the United States in 1996, but was never ratified by the Senate. Even though the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is not in legal force, it did create a de facto moratorium.
Speaking simply as a citizen of the United States, I believe our government must start the process of nuclear disarmament. We must make serious diplomatic efforts to reach a bilateral agreement with Russia regarding nuclear disarmament. The United States and Russia should negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine to avoid further escalation, as direct confrontation between nuclear armed powers endangers the entire world.
Even before an agreement is reached, we could unilaterally dismantle half of our arsenal of 5,224 nuclear warheads and still have more than enough weapons to destroy the world many times over. A potential path to disarmament is through agreements between would-be adversaries that result in reciprocated disarmament. For example, after dismantling 2,000 nuclear warheads, our country could wait for Russia to reciprocate, before continuing on a path towards total nuclear disarmament.
Pakistan, India and China could form a trilateral agreement to make timely progress towards nuclear disarmament. A peaceful resolution of border disputes could help to prevent conflict between these important and populous countries.
The United States should push Israel to give up its nuclear weapons, and in reciprocation, China could push North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.
France and the United Kingdom must also give up their nuclear weapons. It seems unlikely that any country is going to invade France, or the United Kingdom, or the United States for that matter. We can learn from the efforts of peace activists who successfully stopped the practice of nuclear weapons tests. Similar social movements can push our respective governments to adopt a policy of nuclear disarmament.
Please support The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (icanw.org). Tell our Senators to support the ratification of the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons as well as the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. Likewise, tell our congressional representatives to oppose spending on nuclear weapons systems and to establish a “No First Use” policy.
Rather than wasting money maintaining nuclear arsenals that could kill us all, nuclear capable countries can prioritize shared goals such as addressing climate change, preventing pandemics, and ending abject poverty. We must continue our efforts until there are no nuclear weapons in the United States or in any other country. Only then will we be safe from the threat of nuclear war.
Carl Hintz is a contributing editor at The Triangle Free Press.